LGBT Book & Video Blog

Electronic books have been available in some form for a couple of decades, but the 7-month-old Amazon Kindle is flashing the publishing industry its clearest peek at the future of reading - even if analysts say the much-hyped e-reading device won't immediately upend the text business as the iPod has recently transformed the music world.

The 10-ounce Kindle, which holds 200 e-books and can also tirelessly download daily editions of 19 newspapers and 346 blogs, is fielding pretty heady praise for a device few have seen. Amazon hasn't released sales figures, which makes skeptics wonder about its market penetration. New York tech blog Silicon Alley Insider recently posted a photo of a subway rider holding a Kindle under the headline: "Found! A Real Amazon Kindle User."

"We were talking about (the Kindle's low public visibility) at the office the other day. Who's really seen one out there?" said Steve Weinstein, an analyst who tracks Amazon and other Internet commerce sites for Portland's Pacific Crest.

Nevertheless, Weinstein predicted that Amazon's global e-book sales could hit $2.5 billion by 2012. He estimates that the company sold 40,000 units a month this year at its original price of $399 (the price was recently reduced to $359, including wireless charges) and could sell between 700,000 and 800,000 by the end of 2008.

"I don't expect it to have the same impact on the industry as the iPod had on the music industry," Weinstein said.

Greener, easy to use

While the Kindle might not be at the center of a culturally transforming technology moment like the iPod, Weinstein said, "It could be at the very beginning of one."

So if the Kindle is not the publishing world's version of the internal combustion engine, perhaps it is more like its Prius: a greener, easy-to-use device that heralds the industry's future.

But the paperback-book-size gadget, which comes in a black leather carrying case, is still too expensive for the mainstream market, analysts say.

Will Kindle Become The iPod For Books?